An HR Lens on the Midterms

The midterms were monumental, and now Democrats have a rare chance to shape the future of America’s workforce and right some of the wrongs of this administration. Here’s what that could mean for your health care, your job, and your employees.

Dems have taken control of Congress, so they can set the agenda, hold hearings, and use funding deadlines as leverage. The president can still veto bills, and most big bills need 60 votes in the Senate. State governments move faster. Several state houses are now Democratic and governors and state legislatures can change laws in months. Michigan is the example. Democrats took full control there in 2022 and had repealed the state’s right-to-work law in two months.

Health care

This is the issue at the top of most voters’ grievance lists. Employers are bracing for costs to rise another 11% in 2027, the steepest jump since 2003. Those who buy their own insurance on the marketplace get tax credits to lower their premiums, and Congress had temporarily made them bigger. That boost ended this year after last fall’s shutdown ended with no deal to extend it, so many people now pay more. Moreover, on January 1, many adults on Medicaid will have to prove they work, volunteer, or study 80 hours a month to keep their coverage. President Trump has suggested that affordability is a “hoax”. Anyone who has had to go to the hospital this year might disagree.

Expect Democrats in Congress to push to restore the subsidies, and here’s hoping that works. But nothing Congress passes will change this year’s renewal prices. States may have more room to act. They can ask for up to a two-year delay on the Medicaid work requirements. In Iowa, Rob Sand promised to reverse Medicaid privatization and increase oversight of pharmacy benefit managers, and Iowa Democrats have proposed state money to replace lost subsidies. In Ohio, Amy Acton promised a whole-of-government approach to health care costs. In Kansas, Democrats have pushed Medicaid expansion for years against a Republican legislature, and with more Democratic representation, that expansion could pass.

Immigration

In January, ICE agents fatally shot two U.S. citizens. Democrats then refused to fund ICE without changes: masks off, body cameras on, and judges’ warrants before agents enter private property. Republicans said yes to body cameras and little else. Then in June, Congress voted to fund ICE and Border Patrol through the end of Trump’s term, which took away the main tool Congress has, the yearly funding vote. Former agency leaders, Democrats, and even some Republicans have warned that this much money with so few strings limits Congress’s ability to oversee how it’s spent. So that sucks.

A Democratic Congress can still hold hearings, demand records, and push for the guardrails Republicans already agreed to, like body cameras. If you run a business, employment verifications and even raids are what may concern you the most. Arizona requires every employer to use E-Verify, Georgia requires it for employers with about 10 or more employees, and Texas requires it only for public employers and contractors. With Democratic leadership at the state level, do not expect these requirements to grow and hopefully, we will see more protections for workers put in place.

Your job

The federal minimum wage has been $7.25 since 2009. In June, 20 House Republicans joined Democrats to pass the Faster Labor Contracts Act, which speeds up first contracts for newly unionized workers. A Democratic Congress can bring it back, though it still needs 60 Senate votes and a signature.

The bigger action is in the states. Iowa’s minimum wage is $7.25, and Sand proposed raising it to $12. In Ohio, Acton promised a day-one executive order to speed up wage theft complaints, citing more than 213,000 Ohioans affected each year. In Nevada, Aaron Ford won after pledging to repeal the state’s 1953 right-to-work law, which the Legislature has rejected repealing at least 10 times. Virginia Democrats are pursuing a $15 minimum wage and paid sick leave, and Connecticut is moving toward near-universal paid sick leave by 2027.

What to do

Find out what your governor and legislature plan to do when they convene in January. Those decisions could hit your paycheck and your health plan sooner than anything out of Washington. Voters showed up. Now it’s up to the people they elected to deliver.

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